OSCARS 2016 - FINAL PREDICTIONS

OSCARS 2016 - FINAL NOMINATIONS

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WE REVEAL WHO WE THINK WILL BE TAKING HOME

THE GOLD AT HOLLYWOOD'S BIGGEST NIGHT

FEATURES | Kyle Pedley

It's that time of year once again; Hollywood is bracing itself for it's annual battle royale extravaganza and self-congratulatory pat on the back as all in moviedom turn their eyes to the most Golden evening of all - the Academy Awards. With the final countdown ticking away the last few hours before we find out this year's recipients of the world's most prestigious statuette, we present to you our final predictions of what films and talent should be clearing some space on their shelves...

BEST PICTURE

The Revenant

Whilst The Revenant certainly seems to have the greatest momentum going into tonight’s ceremony, the Best Picture race is nowhere near as cut and dry as many are assuming. It would perhaps be considered something of a surprise, but certainly not an upset by any means if either The Big Short or Spotlight went away with the top prize of the night in favour of Iñárritu’s gritty survival epic. The former has in it’s favour a surprise PGA win, and the latter took the SAG ensemble award, both of which are frequently strong precursors for Best Picture, with the PGA in particular routinely tallying.

Oscar rarely goes for comedy with it’s top honour, which arguably works against The Big Short, and many would considered the socially-important Spotlight more typical Best Picture fare. Regardless, both films will likely benefit from the preferential ballot system in play, but with recent revelations that a number of voters seem to have been voting down-the-line for The Revenant, coupled with it’s recent BAFTA dominance and general traction mean it is looking the most likely.

So Best Picture will almost undoubtedly go to Revenant, The Big Short or Spotlight, anything else would be a genuine shock - Room is the only candidate that could even remotely stand a chance of pulling it off, due to Lenny Abrahamsson’s inclusion in the Director lineup, but for now, I think Iñárritu just has the competition edged out and on course to make history as being the first individual to direct back-to-back Best Picture winners (after last year’s Birdman). With that all being said, it is still certainly going to be a close call and likely prove for an interesting night right up to the finish.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)

This seems a little more clear cut than Best Picture, but still isn’t signed, sealed and delivered in the way that, say, Best Actor and Actress are. It’s certainly seems Iñárritu’s to lose, and it’ll be another one for the record books if he does, becoming the first director in 65 years to win back-to-back Best Director statues (the last being Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve).

There are some going out on a limb to say that Spotlight is going to be making the play for Best Picture, and it will drag Tom McCarthy to the podium with it a la Tom Hooper and The King’s Speech in 2010. However, if anybody is going to upset Iñárritu then surely George Miller will be a safer bet for his unanimously praised return to the Mad Max franchise. It’s the kind of ‘comeback’ narrative that Oscar loves, but it still somewhat pales in comparison to the one that has been played out by Iñárritu and his team over the season for their punishing Revenant shoot.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Signed, sealed, delivered. DiCaprio will finally nab his ‘overdue’ Oscar (though he has arguably lost out to worthier performances for each of his nominations) and there doesn’t really seem to be anyone remotely posited to challenge him. There’s the argument that Bryan Cranston could ride on the support of the TV actors in the acting branch, which is in fairness it’s largest contingent, and others voice Michael Fassbender as a respected alternative for an upset, but in truth it’s difficult to envisage either upsetting DiCaprio’s march to the podium - he’ll be getting his first, and it seems only meme makers will be mourning the fact.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Brie Larson (Room)

Again, Larson has this one sewn up, it isn’t going to be anyone else. To play Devil’s advocate it seems fairly clear that Saoirse Ronan is nipping at Larson’s heels in the number 2 spot, but Larson has completely dominated this category in every major precursor. This is a Helen Mirren in The Queen sort of situation - a worthy, powerful performance sweeping through to a deserved Oscar victory with little to no competition.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Arguably the most difficult to predict of all the acting categories. Ultimately, it seems difficult to imagine the Academy passing over the narrative of Stallone’s emotional comeback in Creed - it’s quintessential Hollywood fare and I think it will just push Stallone to the podium. Mark Rylance enjoyed earlier precursor momentum, and in fairness is a hugely respected thespian that some of the acting branch may consider a less garish choice than Stallone, and if The Revenant is getting the down-the-line support that’s rumoured Hardy could find himself pulled along with it to a surprise win. For now though, it seems Rocky Balboa will be finally taking Stallone to the Oscar podium nearly 40 years after his first nomination for the character.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

It’s Winslet vs Vikander, and has been for some time. Winslet nabbed BAFTA and the Globe, but she wasn’t up against Vikander in the former, and it’s perfectly feasible that Vikander split votes with herself between lead and supporting at the Globes. Here, Vikander has no such problem, being only nominated in one category for Oscar glory, and with residual good will from a brilliant year for the young actress, not least her equally acclaimed performance in Ex Machina (which many believe she should have been nominated for instead), she’s the safest bet. This is also a category that regularly likes to reward upcoming young talent and Hollywood ingenues (Renee Zellweger, Jennifer Hudson, Lupita Nyong’o and Anne Hathaway all being recent examples).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Spotlight

After Actress and Actor, the Screenplay awards are probably the biggest locks of the night - the two big contenders to Best Picture after The Revenant are going to walk away with their respective category. Precursors, the WGA and Oscar history all comfortably seem to support this. If any film is going to challenge for Original Screenplay, then there are cases that can be made for Inside Out and even Ex Machina, but Spotlight is far and away the frontrunner here and will likely be seen as McCarthy’s reward for the film should it be just missing out on Best Picture as we are predicting it will.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Big Short

See above. The Big Short’s screenplay might have been disregarded as a little too postmodern for some, but generally it has been lauded for turning a heavy, inaccessible subject matter into something light, buoyant and entertaining. Room is probably the competition here, and of all the upset possibilities in both screenplay categories, it’s the only one I can remotely see happening, but it is still an outside chance to say the least.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Inside Out

Ever since Spirited Away took this category back in 2003, it established that there’s always the outside chance that the Academy could pick outside of the conventional Disney-Pixar-Dreamworks bubble, but it looks highly unlikely to be the case this year, with Inside Out a delightful, highly-celebrated outing by Pixar that many believe was just on the cusp of a Best Picture nomination. When Marnie Was There is probably picking up a healthy number of votes for it being potentially the final Studio Ghibli outing, and Anomalisa found itself on a lot of Top 10 lists for the year, but in reality this is all but Inside Out’s to lose.

BEST FILM EDITING

Mad Max: Fury Road

Editing more often than not tends to tally with Best Picture, or at least it used to, with this trend having become far less reliable over recent years. 2011 famously saw The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo take Best Editing despite not even getting a Best Picture nod, and last year Whiplash took the award where Best Picture winner Birdman wasn’t even nominated. The year before that, in the Gravity vs 12 Years a Slave dukeout, editing went to Gravity where Slave took Picture. As such, it’s a trickier category to call.

It’s hard to shake the feeling that actual editing ‘worthiness’ is factoring into the category more and more in recent years, and as such it seems to be the Academy’s perfect opportunity to reward the masterfully constructed Mad Max and reward it a respectable category statue. If The Revenant is making for a strong play, or even a sweep (difficult to imagine happening) then it wouldn’t be hard for it to scoop this one up in its midst, especially with the ‘shot in real time’ and all other production hardships harmonising so effectively in the edit, but I think Miller’s high-octane masterpiece is entirely fuelled by it’s edit and as such will be rewarded.

OTHER AWARD PREDICTIONS

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - The Revenant

BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING - Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND MIXING - The Revenant

BEST SOUND EDITING - The Revenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - The Hateful Eight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG - ’Til It Happens To You’

BEST DOCUMENTARY - Amy

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - Son of Saul

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - Claude Lansmann: Spectres of the Shoah

BEST ANIMATED SHORT - World of Tomorrow

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT - Shok

The full list of this year's nominations, as well as the opportunity to fill in your own Oscar ballot to win prizes, can all be found over on Oscars.org or by clicking HERE.

The 88th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday 28th February 2016, hosted by Chris Rock.

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